Previous research has indicated that a substantial amount of hatchery-reared Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) migrate from Lake Huron to Lake Michigan, likely due to greater foraging opportunities in Lake Michigan, indicating the potential for wild Chinook salmon to exhibit similar movement patterns. Thus, an increased priority has been placed on quantifying the movement of wild Chinook salmon from Lake Huron to Lake Michigan. The goal of this research was to determine the feasibility of quantifying inter-basin movement of wild Chinook salmon using otolith microchemistry techniques. Chinook salmon otolith pairs were extracted from juvenile and adult fish collected in 2015 and 2016 from tributaries in six predefined regions. Otoliths were analyzed using Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA ICP MS) to determine trace metal concentrations, and various multivariate classification algorithms were evaluated for accuracy of classification. Juvenile data reclassified to their natal regions with classification success at a basin level comparable to previous Great Lakes otolith studies. Applying the juvenile-fit models to the adult data resulted in moderate success at a basin level. MANOVAs indicated significant differences in otolith microchemistry between juvenile year classes, and these differences negatively affected classification accuracy. These findings suggest that otolith microchemistry can be used to estimate wild Chinook salmon inter-basin movement, and that classification accuracy will be much higher if the model is developed from the same year class as the assessment sample.
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